Ontario Polling Tracker
Public voting-intention polls for Ontario's next provincial election. Hover for a snapshot, click anywhere on the chart for the nearest poll's full details.
Showing 43 of 43 polls. Compiled from publicly released polls; each poll attributed to its pollster. Shaded bands show each poll's margin of error.
Compare pollsters
Pick pollsters in the Filters panel (top right) — or click any row below — to focus the chart and highlight their rows. All figures cover the selected date range (Mar 26, 25 – Jul 21, 26).
Averages & lean vs. the field, by pollster
| Pollster | Polls | Last poll | PC | OLP | NDP | GPO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All pollsters | 43 | — | 42.9 field | 30.9 field | 17.9 field | 4.8 field |
| Abacus Data | 13 | Jun 17, 26 | 46.2 +3.7 ▲ | 28.4 −4.0 ▼ | 16.2 −1.4 ▼ | 5.2 −0.0 |
| Liaison Strategies | 11 | Jul 21, 26 | 40.3 −1.0 ▼ | 36.1 +5.7 ▲ | 17.9 −1.2 ▼ | 3.5 −1.9 ▼ |
| Pallas Data | 6 | Apr 22, 26 | 42.2 −1.3 ▼ | 29.3 −1.0 | 20.0 +2.0 ▲ | 6.0 +1.6 ▲ |
| Léger | 3 | May 11, 26 | 42.7 −1.0 | 32.7 +2.0 | 15.0 −3.0 | 6.0 +1.7 |
| Mainstreet Research | 3 | May 7, 26 | 41.3 −1.3 | 30.7 +0.0 | 18.3 +1.3 | 4.0 −0.7 |
| Angus Reid Institute | 2 | Dec 1, 25 | 43.0 −3.3 | 26.5 −1.3 | 22.5 +7.7 | 4.0 −1.3 |
| Campaign Research | 1 | Mar 26, 25 | 46.0 — | 24.0 — | 18.0 — | 8.0 — |
| EKOS Research | 1 | Jul 16, 26 | 32.0 — | 26.0 — | 28.0 — | 5.0 — |
| Ipsos | 1 | Mar 11, 26 | 42.0 — | 35.0 — | 18.0 — | 3.0 — |
| North Poll | 1 | Nov 7, 25 | 46.0 −2.0 | 29.0 +3.5 | 17.0 −1.5 | 4.0 −0.5 |
| Relay Strategies | 1 | Oct 13, 25 | 44.0 −3.3 | 29.0 −1.0 | 17.0 +2.7 | 6.0 +1.0 |
Top figure: unweighted mean of the pollster's published toplines in the selected range. Below it: how far the pollster runs above (+) or below (−) other pollsters' polls fielded within two weeks of theirs — so nobody is called high or low just for polling during a surge. Bold ▲/▼ marks a consistent lean of at least a point across three or more polls; dashes mean too few contemporaneous polls to compare.
Bias map
Each dot is a pollster's mean lean for one party, in points against other pollsters' polls fielded within two weeks. Dots right of the line run high, left run low; a gold ring marks a consistent lean of at least a point across three or more polls. The party chips above the map hide or show parties; clicking a row filters the main chart to that pollster. Filtering by method — in the Filters panel, top right — turns this into a within-mode bias map.
Compare methodologies
The same comparison, grouped by how polls are conducted. The method filter in the Filters panel (top right) scopes the chart and every table; clicking rows here does the same. These tables always cover every method in the selected date range, so the comparison keeps its full context while you filter.
Averages & lean vs. the field, by method
| Method | Polls | Last poll | PC | OLP | NDP | GPO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All methods | 43 | — | 42.9 field | 30.9 field | 17.9 field | 4.8 field |
| Online | 23 | Jun 17, 26 | 45.2 +2.5 ▲ | 29.0 −2.7 ▼ | 16.7 −2.5 ▼ | 5.1 +0.4 |
| IVR | 17 | Jul 21, 26 | 40.4 −2.0 ▼ | 33.5 +1.1 ▲ | 19.2 +2.3 ▲ | 4.5 +0.4 |
| Telephone | 2 | Jul 16, 26 | 38.0 — | 30.5 — | 21.5 — | 4.0 — |
| Smart IVR | 1 | Jun 26, 25 | 41.0 — | 32.0 — | 17.0 — | 3.0 — |
Top figure: unweighted mean of the toplines from every poll using the method in range. Below it: how far those polls run above (+) or below (−) polls using other methods fielded within two weeks — the mode-effect analogue of a pollster's house effect. Bold ▲/▼ marks a consistent lean of at least a point across three or more polls.